Forecast Assumptions for “Fear the Reaper or Hope for a Phoenix?”

By Joshua Lawton, 6/28/18

One of the things that we believe in is full transparency and when it comes to forecasting assumptions on articles, we believe in releasing our assumptions so that you can make decisions for yourself.

Number of Cars Sold in the US per Year Today

17.6

 

Number of Americans Owning a Car by 2030

20%

Number of Cars on the Road in the US Today

263.3

 

Number of Cars Sold Yearly in the US by 2030

3.52

Average US Car Lifetime in Years

10.6

 

Number of Cars on the Road in the US by 2030

52.66

 

% of Autonomous Vehicles Sold

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

 

15%

15%

15%

17%

17%

 

2035

2037

2038

2039

2040

 

20%

20%

30%

30%

35%

 

2036

2041

2042

2043

2044

 

20%

35%

45%

50%

55%

 

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

 

60%

65%

70%

70%

80%

 

2050

 

 

 

 

 

80%

 

 

 

 

 

Year

Number of Cars on the Road

Number of Autonomous Cars Sold

Number of non-Autonomous Cars Sold

Number of Autonomous Cars

Number of non-

Autonomous Cars

% of Autonomous Cars on the Road

2030

52.66

0.528

2.992

0.528

52.132

1.00%

2031

52.66

0.528

2.992

1.056

51.604

2.01%

2032

52.66

0.528

2.992

1.584

51.076

3.01%

2033

52.66

0.5984

2.9216

2.1824

50.4776

4.14%

2034

52.66

0.5984

2.9216

2.7808

49.8792

5.28%

2035

52.66

0.704

2.816

3.4848

49.1752

6.62%

2036

52.66

0.704

2.816

4.1888

48.4712

7.95%

2037

52.66

0.704

2.816

4.8928

47.7672

9.29%

2038

52.66

1.056

2.464

5.9488

46.7112

11.30%

2039

52.66

1.056

2.464

7.0048

45.6552

13.30%

2040

52.66

1.232

2.288

8.2368

44.4232

15.64%

2041

52.66

1.232

2.288

9.4688

43.1912

17.98%

2042

52.66

1.584

1.936

11.0528

41.6072

20.99%

2043

52.66

1.76

1.76

12.8128

39.8472

24.33%

2044

52.66

1.936

1.584

14.7488

37.9112

28.01%

2045

52.66

2.112

1.408

16.8608

35.7992

32.02%

2046

52.66

2.288

1.232

19.1488

33.5112

36.36%

2047

52.66

2.464

1.056

21.6128

31.0472

41.04%

2048

52.66

2.464

1.056

24.0768

28.5832

45.72%

2049

52.66

2.816

0.704

26.8928

25.7672

51.07%

2050

52.66

2.816

0.704

29.7088

22.9512

56.42%

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Have questions about the future of autonomous driving on advertising? Feel free to reach out to Josh at JLawton@abraxastechnology.com.

Joshua Lawton is the COO and Co-Founder of Abraxas Technology and is a Member of OAAA’s Innovations Committee and the Forbes Technology Council. Follow him on Twitter @alertingmainst.

Follow Abraxas Technology on Twitter @Abraxas_Tech